According to the data of the National Bank, the trend of growth in fixed-term ruble deposits of the population at the commercial banks discontinued in May exclusively at the expense of the capitalization of interest.
Over the last month, the volume of the deposits of the individuals rose by BYN 36.6 million, including at the expense of the capitalization of interest – by BYN 34.6 million (taking into account the average rate for May amounting to 13.1% per annum). The volume of the deposits grew by BYN 2.0 million when the individuals opened new accounts and deposited the current ones. Therefore, the net inflow of fixed-term ruble deposits of the individuals was registered in the banking system for the first time over the last three months.
Recall that the volume of the deposits of the individuals in March-April grew exclusively at the expense of the capitalization. Without regard to the accrued interest, the deposits of the population over March decreased by BYN 18.6 million, over April – by BYN 7.3 million.
The bankers connected the outflow of ruble deposits with the drop-down. If the average rate on all fixed-term deposits of the individuals was 18.5% in January this year, then it fell to 14.2% in April.
Over May, the average yield on the deposits of the population in the national currency decreased by 1.1 percentage points. Nevertheless, the deposits grew because the depositors placed more free resources in the national currency on deposits than withdrew. It cannot be ruled out that the holders of currency deposits brought the principal amount.
According to the Regulator's data, the volume of fixed-term currency deposits of the individuals over May decreased by USD 33.6 million taking into account the capitalization of interest. The net outflow of deposits amounted to almost USD 50.0 million.
The depositors could transfer the part of the resources in rubles in order to open the national currency deposits that were interesting from the point of view of the yield at the current exchange rate fluctuations. Besides, the population actively sold cash currency in the domestic market last month according to the data of the National Bank. The total volume of sales as compared to April grew by 11.3% to 634.8 million. It is a record-high volume of sales this year and the second high indicator over the last 1.5 years.
Over five months, the fixed-term currency deposits of the individuals decreased by 2.6% or almost USD 180.0 million and totaled USD 6,819.1 million. The bankers predict the further outflow of currency deposits because the yield will reduce because the National Bank has increased the ratios of allocation to the reserve requirement fund on currency liabilities. Besides, the representatives of the banking sector do not expect the sharp outflow of currency deposits and their crossflow to the ruble ones because the yield on the national currency deposits is falling, too.
In spite of the rate reduction, the dynamics of growth in fixed-term ruble deposits of the individuals is better this year than last year. Over January-May, the volume of the deposits increased (taking into account accrued interest) by almost 9.0% or BYN 258.4 million and equaled to BYN 3,209.1 million. For comparison, the volume of deposits of the individuals fell by 3.4% over five months of 2016.
The net inflow of the deposits in January-May this year totaled almost BYN 56.0 million. In January-May last year, the banks registered the net outflow of deposits worth of almost BYN 240.0 million.
In contrast to the fixed-term deposits, the transferable ruble deposits of the individuals over May decreased by 3.7% after the 10.0% growth observed in April. Over five months, the volume of transferable deposits rose by 1.0% and amounted to BYN 1,585.2 million as of the beginning of June.
At the same time, the transferable currency deposits of the individuals grow at a record pace this year. Over January-May, the transferable currency deposits grew by 27.3% (by 8.3% over May). As of the beginning of June, there was almost USD 550.0 million on the transferable deposits of the individuals, which is USD 117.8 million more than at the year beginning.
The legal entities significantly increased the volume of transferable currency deposits. Over five months, these deposits rose by 32.1% to USD 1,638.2 million. The transferable ruble deposits of the legal entities rose by 17.6% over May but decreased by 8.6% over five months and totaled BYN 1,796.5 million.
As for the fixed-term ruble deposits of the economic entities, they grew over the last month by 2.7%, over five months – by 6.7% to BYN 2,523.9 million. The fixed-term currency deposits of the economic entities rose over May by 5.4%, over five months – by almost 11.0% to USD 2,184.1 million.
The broad money supply (aggregate М3) over May rose by BYN 609.0 million or 1.8% and as of June 1,
2017 equaled to BYN 34,452.2 million in the equivalent. In terms of dollars, it grew by 2.0% (USD 18,450.7 million – as of June 1). The ruble money supply increased over May by BYN 372.9 million or 1.0% to BYN 11,258.9 million.